The wind power market entered the “adjustment period” in 2016, and the market focus shifted southward in the short term. The first round of electricity price reduction will be fully implemented from January 1, 2016. The average wind power project yields in the first, second and third wind zones will drop sharply, while some of the four wind zones not affected by the new electricity price will have a larger Attractive. The new installed capacity in 2016 and 2017 will be transferred to the four types of wind zones, and the proportion of new installed capacity in the four types of wind zones will increase from 25%-35% in the previous years to nearly 50%.

On June 28th, Denmark's third-party wind power research and consulting organization MAKE released the “2016 China Wind Power Market Outlook Report” (hereinafter referred to as “Report”). It is estimated that the average annual lifting capacity will be 25.4GW and grid-connected capacity during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period. 25.5 GW.

The Report expects that China's new hoisting capacity will be 254.5GW from 2016 to 2025. Affected by the rush of equipment from 2014 to 2015, the new hoisting capacity in 2016 will decrease by 8% year-on-year. After the second tariff cut in 2016 and 2018, the new hoisting capacity from 2019 to 2021 will be lower than that from 2016 to 2018.

According to the "Report", China's new grid-connected capacity will reach an astonishing 263GW between 2016 and 2025, accounting for 43% of the global new grid-connected capacity. In 2016, the newly added grid-connected capacity decreased by 23% year-on-year, mainly due to the large number of partial hoisting and construction projects already included in the grid connection data of the Hydropower and Water Conservancy Planning and Design Institute (Water Regulation Institute) in 2015. However, with the release of favorable wind power policies and the promotion of grid investment, the newly added grid-connected capacity will continue to advance in 2016 and exceed the new hoisting capacity in 2018.

According to the "Report", the wind power market entered the "adjustment period" in 2016, and the market focus shifted southward in the short term. The first round of electricity price reduction will be fully implemented from January 1, 2016. The average wind power project yields in the first, second and third wind zones will drop sharply, while some of the four wind zones not affected by the new electricity price will have a larger Attractive. The new installed capacity in 2016 and 2017 will be transferred to the four types of wind zones, and the proportion of new installed capacity in the four types of wind zones will increase from 25%-35% in the previous years to nearly 50%.

According to the "Report", the first round of tariff cuts will be fully implemented from January 1, 2016. The average wind power project yields in the first, second and third wind zones will drop sharply, while some of the four wind zones will not be affected by the new electricity prices. Have a greater appeal. Not only that, but the recent wind power construction plan also emphasizes the importance of accelerating the development of wind power in low wind speed regions in China. Therefore, the new installed capacity in 2016 and 2017 will be transferred to the four types of wind zones, and the proportion of new installed capacity in the four types of wind zones will increase from 25%-35% in previous years to nearly 50%.

The "Report" proposes that China's offshore wind power market will develop slowly by 2020. At present, the capital expenditure (CAPEX) of offshore wind power projects is more than twice that of onshore wind power projects. Chinese wind turbine manufacturers try to reduce costs by localizing high-cost components, but the quality and reliability of offshore wind turbines is critical for developers to reduce development risks, especially in offshore wind farms. On the case. Considering that the poor quality and low reliability of the wind turbine poses a greater risk to the project's rate of return, the developer's price sensitivity to offshore wind turbines is much lower than that of onshore wind power. At the same time, wind turbine hoisting, foundation construction and installation, and submarine cable laying also account for a large portion of the capital expenditures for offshore wind projects. Therefore, limited offshore wind power development technology and development experience has become one of the biggest obstacles restricting the growth of China's offshore wind power.

Therefore, the "Report" predicts that the Energy Bureau may reduce the installed capacity of China's offshore wind power from 30GW to 10-15GW by 2020. The cumulative grid connection target of 10GW in 2020 is still an arduous target for the domestic industry.